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This work is distributed as a Discussion Paper by the STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH

SIEPR Discussion Paper No. 00-51 Network Effects and Microsoft Timothy F. Bresnahan Stanford University

August 2001

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 (650) 725-1874

The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University supports research bearing on economic and public policy issues. The SIEPR Discussion Paper Series reports on research and policy analysis conducted by researchers affiliated with the Institute. Working papers in this series reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research or Stanford University. ____________

Network Effects and Microsoft
Timothy F. Bresnahan* Abstract
Economic theories of network effects have a number of testable implications. Testing of the theory by econometric methods, however, has proved difficult. I turn to documentary methods in order to test the theory, drawing on the body of documents used as evidence in U.S. vs. Microsoft. Analysis strikingly similar to the theory, including not only the main implications but also key analytical distinctions, guides business decision making. The same analysis suggests several interesting areas in which the theory is incomplete. Document based research raises a number of novel methodological issues.

Professor of Economics, Stanford University, and Gordon and Betty Moore Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Email address: tbres@leland.stanford.edu. I am grateful to several people for comments, but especially to Jacques CrJmer. While I served in the Antitrust Division of the United States Department of Justice and continue, at this writing, to consult to the Division, this paper does not represent the opinion or policy position of the Division but only my own view.

*

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Network Effects and



Bibliography: on the Economics of Compatibility Standards and Standardization," mimeo Greenstein, Shane M. (1997) "Lock-in and the Costs of Switching Mainframe Computer Vendors: What Do Buyers See?" Industrial and Corporate Change, 6(2), pp 247-273. Gowrisankaran, Gautam, and Joanna Stavins (2000) "Network Externalities and Technology Adoption: Lessons from Electronic Payments” mimeo, University of Minnesota. Page 32 Network Effects and Microsoft Hart, Oliver D., and Jean Tirole, (1990), "Vertical Integration and Market Foreclosure," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Katz, Michael and Carl Shapiro, (1994), "Systems Competition and Network Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 93-115. Liebowitz and Margolis (1999) Winners, Losers and Microsoft: Competition and Antitrust in High Technology Independent Institute. Liebowitz, S.J., and Stephen E. Margolis, "Network Externality: An Uncommon Tragedy" The Journal of Economic Perspectives, spring 1994, pp. 133-150. Matutes, Carmen, and Pierre Regibeau, "Compatibility and Bundling of Complementary Goods in a Duopoly," Journal of Industrial Economics, vol. 40, no.1, pp. 37-54. Saloner, Garth, and Andrea Shepard (1995), “Adoption of Technologies with Network Effects: An Empirical Examination of the Adoption of Automated Teller Machines” Rand Journal of Economics v26, n3 (Autumn 1995). Shapiro, Carl, and Hal Varian (1998) Information Rules , Harvard Business School Press. Shy, O., (1996) "Technology Revolutions in the Presence of Network Externalities," International Journal of Industrial Organization, 14(6), October 1996, 785-800.

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