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Designing the Voting System

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Designing the Voting System
DESIGNING THE VOTING SYSTEM FOR THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Dennis Leech

No 587

WARWICK ECONOMIC RESEARCH PAPERS

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

DESIGNING THE VOTING SYSTEM FOR THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Dennis Leech,

Department of Economics and CSGR, University of Warwick and Voting Power and Procedures programme, CPNSS, London School of Economics
Revised August 2001 (To be published in Public Choice.)

Dr D Leech Department of Economics University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL UK Phone: (+44)(0)(24)76523047 (direct) (+44)(0)(24)76523027 (messages) 07712353201 (mobile) Fax: (+44)(0)(24)76523032 Email: d.leech@warwick.ac.uk http://www.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/Economics/leech/

Acknowledgements: I would like to thank Moshé Machover, Dan Felsenthal and an anonymous referee for advice and comments on this work, which have led to considerable improvements. Any remaining errors remain my responsibility. An earlier version was circulated as a working paper under the title: “Fair Reweighting of the Votes in the EU Council of Ministers and the Choice of Majority Requirement for Qualified Majority Voting During Successive Enlargements”. A preliminary version was presented to a seminar in the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation at Warwick University;I would like to thank all participants for their comments.

Title: Designing the Voting System for the Council of the European Union Author: Dennis Leech Affiliation: Department of Economics and CSGR University of Warwick and Voting Power and Procedures Programme, CPNSS, London School of Economics.

Abstract: This paper examines the system of Qualified Majority Voting, used by the Council of the European Union, from the perspective of enlargement of the Union. It uses an approach based on power indices due to Penrose, Banzhaf and Coleman to make two analyses: (1) the question of the voting power of member countries from the point of view of fairness, and (2) the question of how



References: Baldwin, R.E., E.Berglof, F. Giavazzi and M. Widgren (2001), Nice Try: Should the Treaty of Nice be Ratified?, Monitoring European Integration 11. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, June. Banzhaf, John F (1965), “Weighted Voting Doesn’t Work: A Mathematical Analysis”, Rutgers Law Review, vol 19, 1965, 317-343 Coleman, Jam S.(1971), “Control of Collectivities and the Power of a Collectivity to Act,” in B. Lieberman, (ed.), Social Choice, pp 277-287; New York, Gordon and Breach. Dubey, P. and L.S.Shapley (1979), “The Mathematical Properties of the Banzhaf Index”, Mathematics of Operations Research, vol 4, 99-131. EU (2001), Treaty of Nice Amending the Treaty of the European Union, the Treaties Establishing the European Communities and Certain Related Acts, EU Document CONFER 4820/00 28 February. Felsenthal, Dan S. and M. Machover (1998), The Measurement of Voting Power: Theory and Practice, Problems and Paradoxes; Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. 26 ------------------------- (2000), Enlargement of the EU and Weighted Voting in its Council of Ministers, London: London School of Economics and Political Science, Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, VPP 01/00, http://www.lse.ac.uk/votingpower. --------------------------- (2001a), “Myths and Meanings of Voting Power: Comments on a Symposium”, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 13(1),81-97. ---------------------------(2001b), “The Treaty of Nice and Qualified Majority Voting”, Social Choice and Welfare, 19, 3, 465-83. Garrett, G. and G. Tsebelis (1996), "An Institutional Critique of Intergovernmentalism," International Organization, 1996, 50: 269-99. ------------ (1999) “Why Resist the Temptation of Power Indices in the EU” and “More Reasons to Resist the Temptation of Power Indices in the EU”, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 11 (3), 291-308 and 331-8. Hosli, M. (1993), "The Admission of the European Free Trade Association States to the European Community: Effects on Voting Power in the European Community Council of Ministers," International Organization, 47, 629-43. Hosli, M. (1995), ”The Balance between Small and Large: Effects of a Double-Majority System on Voting Power in the European Union”, International Studies Quarterly, 39, 351-70. Hosli, M. (1996), “Coalitions and Power: Effects of Qualified Majority Voting in the Council of the European Union”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 34, 2, 25573. Hosli, M. (1998), An Institution’s Capacity to Act: What are the Effects of Majority Voting in the Council of the EU and the European Parliament?, Current European Issues; Maastricht, European Institute of Public Administration. Lane. Jan-Erik and Sven Berg (1999), "Relevance of Voting Power", Journal of Theoretical Politics, 1999, vol. 11, no. 3, 309-19. Laruelle, Annick and Mika Widgren (1998), “Is the Allocation of Voting Power among EU States Fair?”, Public Choice, 94, 317-339. Leech, D. (2000a), "An Empirical Comparison of the Performance of Classical Power Indices," Warwick Economic Research Papers, No. 563, University of Warwick, August, Political Studies, forthcoming. ------------ (2000b), “Voting Power and the Governance of the International Monetary Fund,” CSGR Working Paper No. 68/01, Centre for the study of Globalisation and Regionalisation, University of Warwick, December 2000; forthcoming in Annals of Operations Research, special issue on Game Practice. 27 ------------(2001a), ipexact: A Computer Program for Computing Measures of Power in a Weighted Voting Body, Department of Economics, University of Warwick. ------------(2001b), ipnice: A Computer Program for the Analysis of Qualified Majority Voting Power under the Treaty of Nice, Department of Economics, University of Warwick. ------------ (2001c), "Computing Power Indices for Large Weighted Voting Games", Warwick Economic Research Papers, Number 579 (revised January 2001). Nurmi, H.(1982), "The Problem of the Right Distribution of Voting Power", in M.J.Holler (ed.) Power, Voting and Voting Power, 1982; Würzburg, Physica. Nurmi, H. and T. Meskanen (1999), “A Priori Power Measures and the Institutions of the European Union”, European Journal of Political Research, 35 (2), 161-79. Owen, Guillermo (1995), Game Theory, (3rd Edition); San Diego, Academic Press. Penrose, L.S. (1946), "The Elementary Statistics of Majority Voting", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 109, 53-57. Shapley, L. S. and M. Shubik (1954), “A Method for Evaluating the Distribution of Power in a Committee System,” American Political Science Review, 48, 787-792. Sutter, Matthias (2000) “Fair Allocation and Re-weighting of Votes and Voting Power in the EU Before and After the Next Enlargement”, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 12(4),433-449. Widgren (1994), “Voting Power in the EU and the Consequences of Two Different Enlargements”, European Economic Review, 38, 1153-70. 28 Figure 1:Flowchart of an Iterative Algorithm to Determine Weights for Given Target Powers Input Data: Targets ti Initial Weights wi i=1,n Calculate Power Indices: β? = β ? (w1 , w2 , ... , wn ) Test Convergence: Yes Is |β i - ti|

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