EthicsGames Dilemmas
The Baird Method based on the four ethical lenses and the four plus one decision-making method. In taking previous classes it was determine that no one lens fits the values of student Nayeli Trejos. The professor shocked with the results, and no student prior to Nayeli received that score in the lens test. This has to do with the fact that a person is not a particular lens all the time but shifts into a lens, depending on the situation. Two dilemmas were presented to the student after coaching in each lens the best decision based on the lens was chosen. The student had the opportunity to make the decision based on core values of the individual. Ethical Issues of Simulation and Decision making steps

The first ethical issue presented in the simulation was a concern of an employee with a possible sexual harassment case. This employee had voiced concern about feeling uncomfortable in certain situations. The director of sales made aware by a third party regarding the situation of the employee receiving extra attention. The director received an e-mail from the employee stating the employee wanted to meet but for the director to keep everything confidential. The director of sales used the four plus one step decision-making plan known as the Baird method. The steps are be attentive, be intelligent, be reasonable, be responsible and be reflective ("Ethicsgame", 2012). The best decision was based on the rights/responsibility lens and the results lens. The ethical issue presented in the second situation discusses tampering with research data results. The marketing director received a request to review the data to be submitted by the division medical director for publication. After reviewing the report the marketing director noticed inconsistencies form the first report drafted. The medical director removed data that was not favorable for the research and replaced with favorable data. The four plus one decision...

...Executive Summary (Farzan's Part)
Introduction To Company and Problem (Farzan)
Methodology
The decision analysis that we did encompassed a number of different aspects. First we had to describe what the optimal decision would be based on the probabilities and the payoffs. For this, we designed a decision tree model to reflect the decisions that we to be made at each step, furthermore, the events that are out of control of the company are represented by chance nodes. After completing the outline of the model, we proceeded to “foldback” the tree to find out which decision would give us the highest Expected Monetary Value (EMV) calculated using the following formula:
EMV = PAMA + PBMB (Dont worry about the formatting yet...we will do that section later)
Where:
PA = Probability of event A
PB = Probability of event B
MA = Payoff of event A
MB = Payoff of event B
Based on this analysis, we have can make a decision that will maximize our long term expected monetary value. Further, the decision tree allows the user to visualize the decision outcomes and the associated likely hoods involved with each decision.
(Added the Following Section)
The concept of risk was an important conclusion of the decision tree. After discussion, we contacted the consulting firm of Foresight Consulting to help manage this risk. They...

...Theories, Models, and Decision Making
There are many theories, models, and principles in describing the ways that people make decisions. The expected utility theory is based on a normative theory of behavior. It describes how people would behave if they followed certain requirement of rational decision making (Plous, 1993, p. 80). Further studies showed that paradoxes such as framing effects violated the principles of expected utility theory which made researches turn to alternative models of decision making (Plous, 1993, p. 93). Other models are described as descriptive models of decision making which is a model of how people actually make decisions. There are many different reasons why people make the decisions that they do and many different models, theories and principles that explain those reasons.
If all the people in the world were perfectly rational decisions makers then evaluating the problems for activity one and choosing the correct alternatives would be calculated and the expected utility maximized (Plous, 1993, p. 95). According to the expected utility theory the correct answer to activity one should have been Alternative A in the first problem and Alternative A in the second problem or Alternative B in the first problem and Alternative B in the...

...Decision Making Under Risk
Risk – is defined as hazard or chance of loss even disaster. Thus, in decision making under risk, the decision maker is exposed to some chances of injury or loss. In such circumstances, the decision maker then must first assess the degree and the probability of such loss or failure.
Tools/Criterion of Analysis in Making Decision:
1. Expected Monetary Value (EMV or EV)
Using a decision table with conditional values (payoffs) that are monetary values, and probability assessments we can determine the expected monetary value (EMV) for all alternatives.
EMV is the sum of possible payoffs of the alternatives, each are weighted by the probability of the payoff occurring. Thus –
EMV (alternative i) = (payoff of first state of nature) x (probability of first state of nature) + (payoff of second state of nature) x (probability of second state of nature)
+…+ (payoff of last state of nature) x (probability of last state of nature)
The alternative with the maximum EMV is then chosen.
THIS THEN IS THE EXPECTED VALUE WITHOUT PERFECT INFORMATION.
2. Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)
The expected value with perfect information is the expected or average return, in the long run, if we have perfect information before a decision has to be made.
Step 1: To calculate this, we will...

...Decision Analysis
Course Outline, Quarter I, 2006
Class Materials Topic
Hardcopy in Packet Other*
Introduction
1 Freemark Abbey Winery Structuring Decisions
Framework for Analyzing Risk
2 The North Star Concert North Star.xls Best Guess, Worst Case, Best Case; and Continuous Uncertainties
3 Engine Services, Inc.
Quick Start Guide to Crystal Ball
Analyzing Uncertainty, Probability Distributions, and Simulation Learning Module: Crystal Ball Litigate Demo
Engine Services.xls Language of Probability Distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation
4 Taurus Telecommunications Corporation: A New Prepaid Phone Card Learning Module: Tornado Sensitivity
Taurus Telecommunications.xls Sensitivity Analysis and Key Drivers
Time Value of Money
5 Dhahran Roads (A)
Evaluating Multiperiod Performance Multiperiod Pro Forma and NPV
6 Roadway Construction Company NPV, IRR, and Project Assumptions
Data and Distributions
7 Appshop, Inc. Simulating NPV
8 Lorex Pharmaceuticals
Introduction to Analytical Probability Distributions Lorex Exhibit 2.xls Distributions
9 Sprigg Lane (A) Sprigg2.xls Probability Distributions and Spreadsheet Modeling; Risk
10 The Waldorf Property
Chapter 11 of QBA: Text and Cases
Waldorf.xls Cumulative Distribution Functions, Adjustment for Risk
11 Amore Frozen Foods (A) Macaroni and Cheese Fill Targets
Sampling Amore.xls Sample Uncertainty
Regression
12 Hightower Department Stores: Imported Stuffed Animals...

...Homework Assignment 1
Decision Analysis
Questions 1-6 refer to the following
A family business is considering making an investment in its manufacturing operation. Three decisions are under consideration: (1) a large investment; (2) a medium investment; and (3) a small investment. The business believes that there are three possible future outcomes for its product: (1) increasing demand; (2) stable demand; and (3) decreasing demand. The following payoff table describes the decision situation.
|States of Nature |
|Decision |Increasing Demand |Stable Demand |Decreasing Demand |
|Large Investment |$1,000,000 |$400,000 |-$600,000 |
|Medium Investment |500,000 |300,000 |-200,000 |
|Small Investment |250,000 |125,000 |25,000 |
1. Identify the best decision using the maximax criterion.
Maximax
$1,000,000
$500,000
$250,000
The best decision using the maximax criterion is the large investment of $1,000,000 because it has the most payoff.
2. Identify the best...

...Each individual uses their past experiences and personal values as influences in their decision making. While everyone’s experiences will be different to some degree, there are several frameworks of ethical reasoning that help to guide the majority of the population. The theories of Utility, Duty, Virtue, Care and Justice each emphasize certain values, and draw from specific schools of thought. Utility theory aims to be as objective and rational as possible by qualifying the ramifications of each decision. In this way, it attempts to realize the greatest amount of good for the greatest amount of people.
Duty theory acts as a foil to Utility theory in that actions should be absolute and universal, instead of varying between situations. Known for Kant’s categorical imperative, Duty theory does not allow for conditions or exceptions. Also heavily influenced by a famous philosopher, Confucius’ Virtue theory emphasizes the “Golden Mean” in decision making. Additionally, the theory advocates the use of compromise, and the evaluation of the environment to determine where the middle ground lies.
Perhaps the most well known theory, Care theory draws from traditional Judeo-Christian teachings, and is based on the Golden Rule. The theory teaches to “love thy neighbor as thyself”, and...

...Learning objectives
1. Understand basic control processes in decision-making, and develop appropriate control systems to support specific strategies
2. Identify and evaluate appropriate performance measures to properly assess performance
3. Recognise the importance and the impact of effective information systems in supporting decisions concerning evaluation and control
4. Describe the determinants of decision success and understand the decision making matrix
2 Introduction
Text based sources for the Notes:
Wheelen and Hunger, Ch 11 (2010) Text Pages 367 - 393
In this module, we will focus on evaluating decisions. In doing so, we will reflect on the operational and strategic decision-making processes and, in relation to the latter, take a closer look at the ‘strategic gap’. We will examine the evaluation and control process within the decision-making process, with a particular focus on measures and steering controls.
Finally, we examine what Harrison has labelled as the determinants of strategic decision-making success, as well as his decision-making matrix.
3. Evaluative Frameworks
There are a range of frameworks that we can use to evaluate strategic and other decisions. These include the conventional operational decision making process for rational and bounded rational...

...DecisionTheory Models
The Six Steps in DecisionTheory
* Clearly define the problem at hand.
* List the possible alternatives.
* Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature.
* List the payoff or profit of each combination of alternatives and outcomes.
* Select one of the mathematical decisiontheory models.
* Apply the model and make your decision.
Case
Here we use the Thompson Lumber Company case as an example to illustrate these decisiontheory steps. John Thompson is the founder and president of Thompson Lumber Company, a profitable firm located in Portland, Oregon.
Step 1
The problem that John Thompson identifies is whether to expand his product line by manufacturing and marketing a new product, backyard storage sheds.
Step 2
* The second step is to list the alternative.
* Thompson’s second step is to generate alternatives that are available to him .In decisiontheory the alternative is a course of action or strategy that the decision maker can choose .According to him his alternatives are to construct:
1 • a large new plant to manufacture the storage sheds
2 • a small plant, or
3 • no plant at all
* So, the decision makers should try to make all possible alternatives ,on some occasion even the least important...

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