# Decision Science

McColl Graduate School of Business

BUSN 635 – Decision Science

Spring 2010

Final Examination

Janaina Silva

WHAT HAVE I LEARNED ABOUT DECISION SCIENCE?

The Definition:

Many times when faced with a hard decision to make or one that involves many different factors or consequences the executive tends to look for “an educated guess” or “take a calculated risk” but no real calculation is done nor any education is obtained to deal with uncertainty concerning the decision.

The main goal of my Decision Science course is to equip executives or any decision maker with tools to deal with the decision making process. The course provides us with a systematic, coherent approach to help with problem solving. It uses many different case studies that simulate the need of real decisions and explores the different outcomes and possible consequences of the decision.

The use of the Decision Analysis technique intends not only to put executives in contact with the way how to use the technique, but also create the awareness and motivation for the use of an effective technique that intends to solve problems.

The Process:

We had executive meetings every week to discuss what the problem in the cases was, to express how we would solve the problem and to present our numbers that led to our decision.

We started our journey conceptualizing and practicing decision diagramming and the calculation of expected value; decision diagram is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. Expected value for random variable is equivalent to the probability-weighted sum of the possible values. Calculating the values we are able to think about our outcomes and come up with an “educated decision”. But right in the beginning we found out that there is no right or wrong answer, what we will have is a logical basis for a...

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