Structuring Decision Problems for Decision Analysis

CREATE Research Archive
Published Articles & Papers

1-1-1980

Structuring Decision Problems for Decision
Analysis
Detlof von Winterfeldt
University of Southern California, [e-mail]

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Acta Psychologica 45 (1980) 71-93
0 North-Holland Publishing Company

STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS FOR
DECISION ANALYSIS *

Detlof von WINTERFELDT **
University of Southern

California, Los Angeles, CA 90007,

USA

Structuring decision problems into a formally acceptable and manageable format is probably the most important step of decision analysis. Since presently no sound methodology for structuring exists, this step is still an art left to the intuition and craftsmanship of the individual analyst. After introducing a general concept of structuring, this paper reviews some recent advances in structuring research. These include taxonomies for problem identification and new tools such as influence diagrams and interpretative structural modeling. Two conclusions emerge from this review: structuring research is still limited to a few hierarchical concepts and it tends to ignore substantive problem aspects that delineate a problem it its real world context.
Consequently structuring research has little to say about distinctions between typical problem classes such as regulation, siting, or budget allocation.
As an alternative the concept of “prototypical decision analytic structures” is introduced.

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