I will be putting my entire second edition online, while the book goes through the printing process - it will be available at the end of the year. This may seem like a bit of a free lunch, and I guess it is. I hope, though, that you can do me a favor as you go through the manuscript. If you find any mistakes - mathematical or grammatical - could you please let me know? It would help me ensure that the typos do not find their way into the final version. Chapter 1: Introduction to Valuation Chapter 2: Approaches to Valuation Chapter 3: Understanding Financial Statements Chapter 4: The Basics of Risk Chapter 5: Option Pricing Theory and Models Chapter 6: Market Efficiency: Theory and Models Chapter 7: Riskless Rates and Risk Premiums Chapter 8: Estimating Risk Parameters and Costs of Financing Chapter 9: Measuring Earnings Chapter 10: From Earnings to Cash Flows Chapter 11: Estimating Growth Chapter 12: Closure in Valuation: Estimating Terminal Value Chapter 13: Dividend Discount Models Chapter 14: Free Cashflow to Equity Models Chapter 15: Firm Valuation: Cost of Capital and APV Approaches
Chapter 16: Estimating Equity Value Per Share Chapter 17: Fundamental Principles of Relative Valuation Chapter 18: Earnings Multiples Chapter 19: Book Value Multiples Chapter 20: Revenue and Sector-Specific Multiples Chapter 21: Valuing Financial Service Firms Chapter 22: Valuing Firms with Negative Earnings Chapter 23: Valuing Young and Start-up Firms Chapter 24: Valuing Private Firms Chapter 25: Acquisitions and Takeovers Chapter 26: Valuing Real Estate Chapter 27: Valuing Other Assets Chapter 28: The Option to Delay and Valuation Implications Chapter 29: The Option to Expand and Abandon: Valuation Implications Chapter 30: Valuing Equity in Distressed Firms Chapter 31: Value Enhancement: A Discounted Cashflow Framework Chapter 32: Value Enhancement: EVA, CFROI and Other Tools Chapter 33: Valuing Bonds Chapter 34: Valuing Forward and Futures Contracts Chapter 35: Overview and Conclusions References
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO VALUATION
Every asset, financial as well as real, has a value. The key to successfully investing in and managing these assets lies in understanding not only what the value is but also the sources of the value. Any asset can be valued, but some assets are easier to value than others and the details of valuation will vary from case to case. Thus, the valuation of a share of a real estate property will require different information and follow a different format than the valuation of a publicly traded stock. What is surprising, however, is not the differences in valuation techniques across assets, but the degree of similarity in basic principles. There is undeniably uncertainty associated with valuation. Often that uncertainty comes from the asset being valued, though the valuation model may add to that uncertainty. This chapter lays out a philosophical basis for valuation, together with a discussion of how valuation is or can be used in a variety of frameworks, from portfolio management to corporate finance. A philosophical basis for valuation It was Oscar Wilde who described a cynic as one who “knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing”. He could very well have been describing some equity research analysts and many investors, a surprising number of whom subscribe to the 'bigger fool' theory of investing, which argues that the value of an asset is irrelevant as long as there is a 'bigger fool' willing to buy the asset from them. While this may provide a basis for some profits, it is a dangerous game to play, since there is no guarantee that such an investor will still be around when the time to sell comes. A postulate of sound investing is that an investor does not pay more for an asset than its worth. This statement may seem logical and obvious, but it is forgotten and rediscovered at some time in every generation and in every market. There are those who...