The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report highlights the opportunitiesand risks as the country´s hydrocarbons sector enjoys rising production and investment levels.
We forecast oil production continuing its recent upward trend, rising from 792,630 barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 1.22mn b/d in 2015. Risk is to the upside, particularly if security continues to improve and new infrastructure projects
continue to ease production bottlenecks in the Llanos Basin. Production expansion is forecast to outpace consumption growth, meaning the country will see rising exports, which we expect to continue departing primarily to the US market. By 2015 we forecast consumption will be around 331,000b/d, implying exports of around 888,000b/d.
While the bulk of investment is flowing into the expansion oil production, gas output is also expected to grow, albeit at a modest rate. We forecast production rising from 10.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 to around 12bcm by 2015. Over the same period gas consumption is expected to rise from 8.99bcm to around 10.42 bcm. We expect small-scale gas export to continue across the border into western Venezuela in the coming years, although flows will be temporarily reversed to meet seasonal peaks in demand.
Over the long term, we forecast oil production continuing to rise to a peak of 1.45mn b/d in 2018 before production could start to slip and fall back to around 1.37mn b/d in 2020. If, however, exploration expands beyond the core producing regions and investment continues to rise, supply could continue to increase. Consumption is expected to continue its steady rise, hitting about 375,000b/d in 2020, a relatively modest amount that will mean that Colombia remains an important exporter. Oil exports are forecast to top 1mn b/d by 2017. Gas production is expected to rise from 12bcm to 15bcm between 2015 and 2020, while consumption is expected... [continues]
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