Climate Change and Water Conflict in the Nile Basin

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER CONFLICT IN THE NILE BASIN: IMPLICATION FOR EGYPT NATIONAL SECURITY

BY

IDAMA OGHENEROBO SUPREME
PG/PHD/11/59989

BEING A SECOND SEMINAR PAPER PRESENTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NSUKKA, IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE Ph.D IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION)

SUPERVISOR: PROF E.E. EZEANI

MARCH 2012

ABSTRACT

CONTENTS

Abstract Page Table of Contents
1.1 Introduction --------------------------------------------------------------- 1.2 Statement of the Problem------------------------------------------------ 1.3 Objective of the Study--------------------------------------------------- 1.4 Significance of the Study------------------------------------------------ 1.5 Literature Review--------------------------------------------------------- 1.6 Theoretical Framework-------------------------------------------------- 1.7 Hypothesis----------------------------------------------------------------- 1.8 Method of Data collection----------------------------------------------- 1.9 Empirical Verification--------------------------------------------------- 1.10 Summary and conclusion---------------------------------------------- 1.11 Recommendation------------------------------------------------------ Bibliography

INTRODUCTION

Climate change is an added stress to already threatened habitats, ecosystems and species in Africa, and is likely to trigger species migration and lead to habitat reduction. Up to 50 per cent of Africa’s total biodiversity is at risk due to reduced water and other human-induced pressures (Boko et al. 2007:49).

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The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) dispelled many uncertainties about climate change. Warming of the climate system is now unequivocal. It is now clear that global warming is mostly due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases (mostly CO2). Over the last century, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increased from a pre-industrial value of 278 parts per million to379 parts per million in 2005, and the average global temperature rose by 0.74° C. According to scientists, this is the largest and fastest warming trend that they have been able to discern in the history of the Earth. An increasing rate of warming has particularly taken place over the last 25 years, and 11 of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the past 12 years. The IPCC Report gives detailed projections for the 21st century and these show that global warming will continue to accelerate. The best estimates indicate that the Earth could warm by 3° C by 2100. Even if countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth will continue to warm. Predictions by 2100 range from a minimum of 1.8° C to as much as 4° C rise in global average temperatures. This prediction, creates fear in the minds of many people are, however the most fearful aspect of climate change, is the inability of human to adapt to all the unknown effect that are likely to accompany this changes, one of such effect is water scarcity.

Human beings have been adapting to the variable climate around them for centuries. Worldwide local climate variability can influence peoples’ decisions with consequences for their social, economic, political and personal conditions, and effects on their lives and livelihoods. The effects of climate change imply that the local climate variability that people have previously experienced and have adapted to is changing and changing at relatively great speed. As Leed (2009:43) noted,

Africa is already a continent under pressure from climate stresses and is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate...
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