Case Study Metabical

Topics: Moving average, Forecasting, Time series analysis Pages: 2 (608 words) Published: March 21, 2013
4. Examine methods for forecasting demand of a new product and estimating profitability.

R/ The different forecasting methods can be divided in two categories.

1. Qualitative methods: these types of methods are usually based on the opinion of people, some of these methods are:

* Executive committee consensus: develop medium-long forecast by asking a group of knowledgeable executives their opinions with regard to future values of the items being forecasted. * Dolphin method: involves a group of experts who eventually develop a consensus; they usually make long range forecasts for future technologies or future sales of a new product. * Sales force composite: sales people are a good source of information with regard to customers’ future intentions to buy the new product. * Customer surveys: by using a customer survey, a company can base its demand forecast on the customers’ purchasing plans.

2. Quantitative methods: These methods forecast demand levels based on analysis of historical time series. Quantitative methods are used to estimate future demands as a function of past data; appropriate when past data are available. The method is usually applied to short-intermediate range decisions.

* Forecasts based on historical data: these methods are probably the simplest ones to deploy and can be accurate over the short term. * Naive methods: these are the most cost-effective and efficient objective forecasting model. For stable time series data, this approach says that the forecast for any period equals the previous period's actual value. * Moving average: An indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a security's price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. * Exponential smoothing: is a technique that can be applied to time series data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation, or to make...
Continue Reading

Please join StudyMode to read the full document

You May Also Find These Documents Helpful

  • case study Essay
  • case study Essay
  • Case Study Essay
  • CASE STUDY Essay
  • Case Study Research Paper
  • Case Study Essay
  • case study Essay

Become a StudyMode Member

Sign Up - It's Free