Global Financial Crisis Discussion Series
Paper 4: Cambodia Hossein Jalilian, Chan Sophal, Glenda Reyes and Saing Chan Hang, with Phann Dalis and Pon Dorina
Global Financial Crisis Discussion Series Paper 4: Cambodia1
Hossein Jalilian, Chan Sophal, Glenda Reyes and Saing Chan Hang, with Phann Dalis and Pon Dorina May 2009
Overseas Development Institute 111 Westminster Bridge Road London SE1 7JD
1 This study was prepared by researchers at the Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI). This study is part of a wider research project coordinated by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) London and supported by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but it does not necessarily reflect their views.
Figures and tables Acronyms Abstract 1. 2. 3. Introduction The global financial crisis and shocks at the national level The effects of the global financial crisis on growth and development 3.1 Effects on trade 3.2 Effects on tourism 3.3 Effects on construction 3.4 Effects on external resource flows 3.5 Effects on the domestic banking system 3.6 Effects on poor and vulnerable groups Policy implications 4.1 Actual policy response 4.2 Possible policy response Conclusion iii iv vi 1 2 3 5 13 15 17 21 25 27 27 33 37 38 41 44 47 48 49 50 52 54 55
References Annex 1: Nature of Cambodian growth and its implications for poverty and inequality Annex 2: Summary of the findings of the Moving out of Poverty Study Annex 3: Cambodian garment industry: A model sector? Annex 4: Cambodia’s domestic banking system: Underlying weaknesses Annex 5: Microfinance institutions: The success of ACLEDA Annex 6a: Global crisis: A window of opportunity for deeper reforms on fiscal management Annex 6b: Global crisis: A window of opportunity for deeper reforms on tourism Annex 6c: Global crisis: A window of opportunity for deeper reforms on the garment industry Appendix 7: Summary of stakeholders’ perspectives on impacts of financial crisis on specific sectors
Figures and tables
Figure 1: Real GDP growth, 2002-2009 (%) Figure 2: Sectoral contribution to real GDP growth, 2004-2010 (%) Figure 3: Merchandise trade, 2002-2006 (% of GDP) Figure 4: Exports, 2004-2009 (% change) Figure 5: Effective exchange rates, 2000-2008 (2000=100) Figure 6: Imports, 2004-2009 (% change) Figure 7: Total trade values, Jan 2007-Oct 2008 (year-on-year % change) Figure 8: Export share of garments vis-à-vis other exports, 2004-2009 (%) Figure 9: Garment exports by destination country, 2004-2008 (US$m) Figure 10: Garment exports, Jan 2006-Jan 2009 (US$m) Figure 11: Cambodia garment exports and US retail sales, Jan 2006-Jan 2009 (year-on-year in %) Figure 12: Number of textiles and apparels factories in operation, 1994-2009 Figure 13: Investors in the garment industry (%) Figure 14: Size of workforce in garment industry, Jan 2008-Jan 2009 (’000s) Figure 15: Index of volumes of main commodities exports, Jan 2006-Sep 2008 (Jan 2006=100) Figure 16: Index of values of main commodities exports, Jan 2006-Sep 2008 (Jan 2006=100) Figure 17: Prices of rice and rubber, Jan 2006-Jan 2009 Figure 18: Car import volumes, Jan 2006-Sep 2008 (year-on-year % change) Figure 19: Motorcycle import volumes, Jan 2006-Sep 2008 (year-on-year % change) Figure 20: Growth of tourism sector, 2004-2009 (%) Figure 21: Tourist arrivals, Jan 2007-Feb 2009 (year-on-year growth %) Figure 22: Passenger traffic, 2008 vs. 2007 (% change) Figure 23: Flight movements (% change) Figure 24: Construction, 2004-2009 Figure 25: Value of construction in Phnom Penh, Q4 2006-Q4 2008 (approval basis US$m) Figure 26: Foreign direct investment, 2004-2009 (US$m) Figure 27: ODA, 2002-2009 (US$m) Figure 28: Top-pledged aid, 2009 (US$m) Figure 29: Inward remittances, 2004-2008 Figure 30: Bank assets, Dec 2006-Sep 2008 (% of GDP) Figure 31: Number and type of banks, Dec 2006-Sep 2008 Figure 32:...