QSO 510
Problem 1
(i) First, I would build a model that fits the historical data well, then secondly, I would use the model to forecast the future. In terms of models that I might use, I may use the Random Walk Model or I might choose to use Autocorrelation.

(ii)

(iii) According to the textbook, the problem with time series data is that the residuals are often correlated with nearby residuals, a property called autocorrelation . The most frequent type of autocorrelation is positive autocorrelation. For example, if residuals separated by one month are correlated—called lag 1 autocorrelation—in a positive direction, then an over prediction in January, say, will likely lead to an overestimate in February, and an underestimate in January will likely lead to an under prediction in February. If this autocorrelation is large, serious prediction errors can occur if it isn't dealt with appropriately. The numerical measure developed to check for lag 1 autocorrelation is called the Durbin-Watson statistic, and it is quoted automatically in the regression output of many statistical software packages. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic is scaled to be between 0 and 4. Values close to 2 indicate very little lag 1 autocorrelation, values below 2 indicate positive autocorrelation, and values above 2 indicate negative autocorrelation. (iv) I would use a Runs Test to determine if there are too many or too few runs in the series—and if either is the case, then the null hypothesis of randomness can be rejected.

...ECM1000 Research Methods in
Finance
Lecture 9
Autocorrelation
1
Outline
•
•
•
•
Introduction
Consequences of Autocorrelated Disturbances
Detecting Autocorrelation
Remedy
References:
Gujrati, Ch. 12
Introduction
Imagine that we are fitting the regression equation to a set of
economic variables observed through time:
yt xt1 ........ xtk ut
Then it is usual to assume that the disturbance ut represents the net
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Algorithm workbench
3. Write assignment statements that perform the following operations with the variables a, b, and c.
a. Adds 2 to a and stores the result in b
b. Multiplies b times 4 and stores the result in a
c. Divides a by 3.14 and stores the result in b
d. Subtracts 8 from b and stores the result in a
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...[pic]
ASSIGNMENT SUBMISSION AND ASSESSMENT
_________________________________________________________________________
OUMM3203
PROFESSIONAL ETHICS
(PLEASE EDIT WHERE NECESSARY-THIS IS ONLY SUGGESTIONS FOR THE ASSIGNMENT’S GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS)
_________________________________________________________________________
INSTRUCTIONS TO STUDENTS
1. This assignment contains only ONE (1) question that is set in the language of the printed module for the...

...PT1420 - Unit 5 Homework and Lab Assignment
Unit 5 Assignment 1: Homework
1.) Design an if-then statement that assigns 20 to the variable y and assigns 40 to the variable z if the variable x is greater than 100. (Simple if statement)
If x > 100 then
Y=20
Z=40
End if
2.) Design an if-then statement that assigns 0 to the variable b and assigns 1 to the variable c if variable a is less than 10. (Simple if statement)
3.) Design an if-then-else...

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Chartered Management Institute Approved Centre
Level 5 Extended Diploma in Management and Leadership
Written Assessment – 5
Unit 5001V1
Instruction Sheet
Assignment: Unit 5001V1 – Personal development as a manager and leader
Level: 5
Lecturer: Ian Laing
Date of Issue: 13th May 2015
Date Due In: 26th June 2015
Format: Word Document submitted to:
ianlaing@ihlassociates.karoo.co.uk...

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Week 2 Assignment
Yasir Shakoor
Intermediate Algebra MAT222
Professor Perez
09/01/2014
For our Week 2 assignment, in Intermediate Algebra, we were asked to solve the problem number 68 on page 539 of Elementary and Intermediate Algebra. aside from completing the problem, we were also asked to write a two to three page paper while including the five given vocabulary words for the week. Please see the problem below:
Shipping...

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Tara Lint
MAT 222 Week 1 Assignment
Instructor: James Segala
August 18, 2013
Solving Proportions
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