Assessing the Dtm

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The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a representation of the changes in population growth rates and the effect on population (“Demographic Transition Model”). This model tracks the progression and trend of population in four stages: Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, and Stage 4. In Stage 1, the Birth and Death rates are high, while the population seems to fluctuate. Within Stage 2, the Birth rates remain pretty high and the Death rate has fallen severely, while the population has begun to rise. In Stage 3, the Birth rate decreases and the Death rate sees a rise, and population rises as well. Lastly, in Stage 4, the Birth and Death rates are low, while the population remains constant. Population within a certain region can fluctuate depending on many factors. Many countries have experienced population changes such as the African country of Kenya, which lies in Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model and Canada, who lies under Stage 4. While a country maybe in the state that it may be in a certain time doesn’t mean that it will more likely stay within that stage for the next 50 to 100 years. With that said, the Demographic Transition Model can be a great source for predicting population growth when it comes to more developed countries, but it certainly has its flaws when it comes to projections with the less developed countries.

Kenya, according to the Population Reference Bureau, has a population of 40.0 million. The Birth rate is about 37 per 1000, while the Death rate is about 10. With the data given, Kenya fits under the Stage 2 category. Kenya has problems with balancing out the birth and death rates, where the African country sees a ratio imbalance, or old-age dependency, between the old-age (65 and older) to young-age (15 and younger). There aren’t enough people working to be able to support those that are old and ill, and if this trend continues to occur then Kenya could remain within that Stage 2 category. About 25 years from now in the mid-2025, the...
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