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Quantitative Methods - II Assignment 2

The Philippines’ Rising Bioethanol Industry

Submitted By:

Group - 7

Table of Contents
Executive Summary3
Question 14
Question 24
Question 35
Question 46
Question 56
Question 68
Question 78
Exhibit 19
Exhibit 210
Exhibit 311
Exhibit 412
Exhibit 512
Exhibit 612
Exhibit 713
Exhibit 814
Exhibit 915
Exhibit 1015
Exhibit 1115
Exhibit 1216
Exhibit 1317
Exhibit 1418
Exhibit 1518
Exhibit 1619

Executive Summary
The government of Philippine has mandated blending of gasoline with bioethanol. The objectives are to reduce dependence on imported fuel, reduce environmental footprint and generate local employment. The objective of the case study is to analyze various costs based on the availability of different raw materials and the logistics situation unique to its geography. The costs are being estimated with respect to year 2007. Geographically, the country is composed of fragmented clusters of small islands. For administrative purposes, the area is divided into 12 different regions as shown in the exhibit 1. Some of the regions are grouped together to form major producing regions. These are – Northern Luzon, Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Northern Luzon consists of regions I, II, III; Southern Luzon – Regions IV-A, IV-B, V; Visayas – Regions VI, VII, VIII; Mindanao – Regions IX, X, XI, XII. The raw material is transported form farm to distillery via trucks. This cost is generally born by the farmers and hence not to be considered separately. From distillery it can be further transported to oil depots in the same region for blending via lorry. If it is to be transported to distilleries in other regions, it has to be shipped via water using tankers. The cost of road transportation is US$ 0.00413 per litre per 20 kilometres. The cost of sea transport for various routes is provided in Exhibit 6. Bioethanol can be produced with the help of five different raw materials – Sugarcane, Cassava, Corn and Sweet Sorghum and Molasses. The area under harvest as well as the cost of harvesting is different for each raw material (except molasses which is derived from sugar). The yield of ethanol per hectare of produce and hence the cost of production per hectare is different for different for each raw material. The case provides data upon the area under harvest for each raw material upto the year 2005. The same can be forecasted to estimate the area under harvest in 2007. Also, the price of the feedstock was also very speculative depending on yearly harvest etc. The use of sugarcane is being promoted for two reasons – it has a huge local sugar industry which can provide the sugarcane as well as the molasses and hence lobbied actively for the law. Secondly, from the experience of Brazil, the cost of production for sugarcane has been found to be the lowest. Cassava also provides low cost of production; however the price is highly speculative. The cost of production from molasses and corn were relatively higher and hence it was more beneficial to use them in the beverage industry. Philippine has adequate labour availability required for the ethanol industry. Around 40,000 individuals graduate from college each yearly with many of them from related fields like agriculture, microbiology, chemistry etc. Hence, the labour supply need not be considered as a constraint. Based on the above data, the Department for Agriculture has to formulate strategies to maximize the incentives for the proliferation of the ethanol industry. This would involve estimating optimum mix of the raw materials required as well as the optimum supply strategy within and among different regions to minimise the cost. This would help the department to come out with adequate budget proposals for the incentive package for the industry as well as...
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