Thailand Balance of Payments Analysis (Q1/2009-Q1/2010)
Q1/2009 to Q2/2009
The Thai balance of payments dropped significantly by 83% (QoQ) in Q2/09 stemming principally from violent political protests within the Kingdom and higher imports, to a lesser degree. As a result of the protests which had a direct effect on the tourism industry, the net service income and transfer dropped sharply by 131% resulting in a total drop of 68.3% in the current account balance. Although the political unrest caused a selloff in the equity and debt market by foreign investors the effects on the total capital and financial accounts are not noticeable QoQ as the effect was offset by the investments in other assets account. However, it is worth to note that the outflows in both equity and debt securities increased significantly by almost 100% (QoQ). Q2/2009 to Q3/2009
With peace and normalcy returning to the Kingdom, the Q3 balance of payments grew back to 258,396.51 million baht the same level prior to the violent protest. Export and import increased as expected as demands increase prior to the anticipated worldwide holiday season. However, the net service income and transfer still fell by almost 50% as tourists are still concerned about security; leaving a worrying sign for the tourism industry. On the other hand, the financial market is seeing a quick recovery as investors start to flood back to Thailand as they regain confidence and escape from low interest in developed countries increasing the capital and financial account by almost three folds to 61,673.96 million baht. Q3/2009 to Q4/2009
The balance of payment in Q4 still maintains the same level as Q3 at 258,609.41 million baht only decreasing minimally. The trade balance fell by more than half as imports surge during the holiday season. However, net services income and transfers rose sharply to...