# Altavox Case Study

Topics: Exponential smoothing, Moving average, Average Pages: 6 (3482 words) Published: April 30, 2013
Altavox Excel Data (1)

Week12345678910111213Average
Atlanta3345373855301858473723554040
Boston2635414046485518624430455042
Chicago4434225548726228279535454747
Dallas2742354051647065554338474248
Los Angles3243544046744035453848565046
Total162199189213246288245204236257174248229222

Altavox Data (2)

Week-5-4-3-2-1
Atlanta4538305837
Boston6218484035
Chicago6222724448
Dallas4235406443
LA4340544635
Total254153244252198

Question 1
Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five week’s and three weeks’ past data. The past data in each region is given below (week – 1 is the week before week 1 in the table, -2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.). Evaluate the forecast that would have been made over the 13 weeks for each distributor using the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. Comparison of models:

ModelsMean absolute deviation (MAD)Mean absolute percent error (MAPE)Tracking signal
averagemaxminaveragemaxminaveragemaxmin
Three week moving averages

11.13
17.28
7.9230%
46%16%-.823.75-4.57
Five week moving average10.73
15.57
7.928%40%16%11.17
5.17
-2.72
Five week exponential smoothing11.58
18.09
8.5729%43%
18%0.621.93-0.59
Three week exponential smoothing11.1317.787.8929%45%17%-.271.74-2.66 Aggregate demand model30.57
14%
0.93

Question 2
Next consider using a simple exponential smoothing model. In your analysis, test two alpha values, .2 and .4. Use the same criteria for evaluating the model as in question 1. Assume that the initial previous forecast for the model using an alpha value of .2 is the past three-week average. For the model using an alpha of .4 assume that the previous forecast is the past five-week average. Three weeks Moving average

Week-3-2-112345678910111213average

Forecasted values for thirteen weeks
Atlanta30583741.6741.6741.6744.0041.2042.0442.1142.2042.3141.9742.1342.1542.1542.10 Boston48403541.0041.0041.0039.6039.5240.4240.3140.1740.0040.0940.2040.1540.1240.28 Chicago72444854.6754.6754.6751.2052.6453.5753.3553.0852.7753.0853.1753.0953.0453.31 Dallas40644349.0049.0049.0050.8048.1649.1949.2349.2849.3349.0449.2149.2249.2249.21 LA54463545.0045.0045.0043.2042.6444.1744.0043.8043.5643.6343.8343.7743.7243.95 Total244.00252.00198.00231.33231.33231.33228.80224.16229.39229.00228.54227.98227.81228.55228.38228.25228.84

sumTracking Signal
Forecast Error-8.673.33-4.67-6.0013.80-12.04-24.1115.804.69-4.97-19.1312.85-2.15-31.27-3.07
-15.00-6.000.000.406.487.5814.69-22.1722.003.91-10.204.859.8816.411.73
-10.67-20.67-32.673.80-4.6418.438.65-25.08-25.7741.92-18.17-8.09-6.04-78.99-4.57
-22.00-7.00-14.00-10.802.8414.8120.7715.725.67-6.04-11.21-2.22-7.22-20.68-1.92
-13.00-2.009.00-3.203.3629.83-4.00-8.801.44-5.634.1712.236.2829.673.75

8.673.334.676.0013.8012.0424.1115.804.694.9719.1312.852.1510.1715.006.000.000.406.487.5814.6922.1722.003.9110.204.859.889.4710.6720.6732.673.804.6418.438.6525.0825.7741.9218.178.096.0417.28
22.007.0014.0010.802.8414.8120.7715.725.676.0411.212.227.2210.7913.002.009.003.203.3629.834.008.801.445.634.1712.236.287.92

Calculations for MAPEMAPE
0.260.070.130.160.250.401.340.270.100.130.830.230.0533%
0.580.170.000.010.140.16...