Tourism Notes

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Tourism Notes
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Year 1
Ronan Keane

Table of Contents
Forecasting Demand4
Poor forecasting:4
Most popular variable (as measurement for demand):4
Causative (Econometric)4
Econometric models5
Non-causative (time series)5
Non-causative (time series)5
Qualitative forecasting5
Problems and challenges5
Gravity model5
Limitations6
Price and Income Elasticity in Demand7
Elasticity’s of Demand in Tourism7
Income Elasticity of Demand7
Cross elasticity of demand8
UK Demand UK8
Income elasticity8
Cross-price elasticity8
Cross-price Elasticity9
New Zealand Demand9
Cross Price Elasticity New Zealand Passenger Demand10
US Demand10
Japanese Demand10
Cross-price Elasticity11
Understanding Statistics in Tourism12
Categories of statistics12
Statistics methods12
Information required to create statistics12
Measurement & reliability problems12
Top 10 destinations (million)14
International tourism top spenders (US $billion)15
UK incoming & outgoing tourism 201116
Trends in UK Inbound Tourism16
Top 10 countries visited 201117
Characteristics of Tourism18
Transport for Tourism20
Transport to Destination20
Air transport20
Transport at the destination20
Road transport21
Rail transport21
Sea transport22
Growth and Development of Tourism23
Demand changes23
Attitudes/motivation23
Personal Ability23
External ability23
Supply Changes23
Capital availability23
Legislation23
History23
Key Dates In the take-off period24
Drive to Maturity (1918-1939)24
Drive to Maturity – Key dates24
Age of mass consumption (1945 - )25
Age of mass consumption – key dates25
Continued....25
Drive to maturity26
The Age of mass consumption 194526
Development Since 200027
Environmental Impacts of Tourism28
Changes in awareness of environmental impacts (western view)28
Butler’s Life cycle and the evolution of tourist destinations.28
Positive Environmental impacts30
Conservation of important natural areas e.g. national parks30
Conservation of archaeological and historic sites and architectural character30
Improvement of environmental quality30
Enhancement of the environment30
Improvement of infrastructure30
Increasing environmental awareness30
Negative Impacts of tourism30
Water, air, noise & visual pollution30
Waste disposal problems30
Ecological disruption30
Environmental hazards30
Damage to archaeological & historic sites30
Land use problems31
Climate change31
Assessing the Impact31
Environmental impact assessment31
Environmental auditing31
Environmental action programmes31
Towards sustainability32
Definition of sustainability32
UNWTO (2004)32
The Davos declaration32
Sustainability in tourism can be viewed as33
The rational for sustainable tourism33
Area Protection34
Government Regulation34
Environmental impact assessment (EIA)34
Carrying capacity Calculations34
Consultation/participation techniques34
Codes of conduct34
Sustainability indicators34

Forecasting Demand

* Reliable and accurate forecasting important in tourism
* Tourism planning and management (need for future infrastructure) * Perishability

Poor forecasting:
* Overcapacity, understaffing, excess inventories
* Forecasting heavily dependent on secondary data
* Mainly at destination level (and not company level, except for large attractions like theme parks, Disney land)

Most popular variable (as measurement for demand):
* Tourist arrivals
Others:
* Tourist expenditure at the destination
* Expenditure on particular services (meals, sightseeing) how much money will the tourists spend. * Tourism revenue
* Tourism employment
* Tourism import & export
* Product level: transport, accommodation …
*...
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