Study Guide: Trend Forecasting

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CTE3809 Exam #2 Study Guide

Chapter Four: Cultural Indicators
* John Naisbitt: Megatrends
* Time frame: Decades
* The technique for gathering signals: Content analysis of 6,000 local newspapers each month * The methods to interpret the signals: Check the shifting space devoted to an issue * The range of the forecasts: A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society * The move toward an information-based economy

* The dual compensations of “high tech” and “high touch” products * The shift to a global economy
* The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks * The shift from an either/or to a multiple-option society * Faith Popcorn
* Brain Reserve (Marketing consultancy) in 1974
* The Popcorn Report (1991)
* “Cocooning”
* Cocooning
* (A stay-at-home syndrome building in 1981) had repercussions in multiple industries (e.g., home renovation, master bedroom suite, larger baths, casual, comfortable basic fashion, bed linens, housewares, car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic.) * Safe, homelike environment

* Fashion:
* Polar fleece
* Internet & catalog fashions
* Counter-trends
* Trends that contrast with another prevailing set of trends, both of which offer opportunities for businesses because of the contradictory aspects of human behavior * Stan Davis
* Mass Customization
* Coined by Davis in 1987
* The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services * Mass customization
* The process of using mass-production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services * A process that has been used by apparel manufacturers and retailers since the mid-1990s to provide consumers with design input and custom fit * Stan Davis, Future Perfect

* Chris Anderson
* The Long Tail
* Time frame:
* Decades
* Techniques for gathering signals:
* Interviewing Experts Internet business CEOs
* Gaining access to proprietary data from high-profile Internet-based companies * Methods to interpret the signals
* Plotted the data—sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis- and hypothesized about resulting pattern * Range of the forecasts:
* Applies to online marketing
* “The trick to trend-spotting is to ask the right people.” * Anderson, using his skills as a journalist:
* Interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research * Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern
* Looked for additional examples
* Gave his insight a catchy name—“the long tail” to catch people’s attention (Anderson, 2006) * In the 21st century, hits will still happen but niches represent the new, emerging marketplace—a marketplace of infinite choice * Environmental scanning

* Enables the forecaster to find signals of change and signpoints to the future in today’s media * Research strategy 1: Media scan
* Research strategy 2: Interviewing
* Research Strategy 3: Observation
* Media scan
* Scanning media for clues to change by paying special attention to the following signals of the future: * New and unusual businesses
* Innovative and novel products
* Unusual travel destinations
* New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure-related activities * Shifts in the workplace and the way people do their jobs * New shopping locations, store designs, and services for customers * Stories about people and their unique adjustments to life’s challenges * Stories about neighborhoods with an interesting mix of people, shopping, or ethnic cultures *...
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