1. The first step in forecasting often involves a detailed analysis of the historical market data. Ideally, you will want to go back at least 10 years and examine monthly data and try to develop a good understanding of the market dynamics. This is useful when developing analogs for future events. However, to gauge the appropriateness of these analogs, it is useful to speak to someone in the company that has some detailed insights into the market dynamics. 2. Following the data analysis exercise, and once you have a solid understanding of historical market fluctuations, speak to various people within the company who can speak of future market events. This includes identifying which events are expected and then trying to model each event individually. Basically, you are seeking some insights into such future market events as new competitor products, changes in reimbursement status, and changes in product formulation or new indications. These events become your forecast assumptions.
Key forecasting assumptions
Key forecasting assumptions revolve around anticipating future market events and modeling the impact of these events on the marketer’s brand. Typically, you can look at about six different kinds of events that can have an impact on the brand’s sales. The forecasters need to identify which events are likely to happen in the foreseeable future. They don’t need to be able to quantify the impact of these events, but simply to identify them. The list of potential market events include: * New competitors entering the market
* New product indication
* New product formulation
* Change in reimbursement status
* Generic entry;
* Change in medical guidelines/publication of major study * patient diagnosis rates
* drug compliance
* cost containment measures
Patient based forecasting (mainly for pipeline products)
Combination of forecasts based on epidemiology and actual patients on products. The key primary...