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Fiskal - Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected Asean

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Fiskal - Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected Asean
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Title: Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries Authors: Hsiao Chink Tang, Philip Liu, Eddie C. Cheung PII: DOI: Reference: To appear in: Received date: Revised date: Accepted date: S1049-0078(12)00070-X doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2012.07.003 ASIECO 865 ASIECO 1-3-2011 23-7-2012 24-7-2012

Please cite this article as: Tang, H. C., Liu, P., & Cheung, E. C., Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries, Journal of Asian Economics (2010), doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2012.07.003 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Highlights:  This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five ASEAN economies using an open economy SVAR model.  We found government spending has no immediate and statistically significant impact on output for countries studied here.  Tax increases generate positive output growth in all countries but only statistically significant in Thailand and Indonesia.  Time-varying VAR reveal that the positive impact from higher taxes mainly concentrated around crisis periods.

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Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries
Hsiao Chink Tang,* Philip Liu,** and Eddie C. Cheung***

Revised: July 2012

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a small open economy structural vector autoregression model, government spending is found to have weak and



References: Asian Development Bank. 2007. Asia Economic Monitor: December. Manila. ——. 2010. Asian Development Outlook 2010. Manila. A. Alesina, and S. Ardagna. 1998. Tales of Fiscal Adjustments. Economic Policy. 13 (27). pp. 489–545. A. Alesina, and R. Perotti. 1997. The Welfare State and Competitiveness. American Economic Review. 87 (5). pp. 921–939. F. Caprioli, and S. Momigliano. 2011. The Effects of Fiscal Shocks with Debt Stabilizing Budgetary Policies in Italy. Banca D’Italia Working Paper. 839. ——. 2009. Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending. NBER Working Paper Series. 15348. ———. 2009. Chapter III. Fiscal Policy during Downturns and the Pros and Cons of Alternative Fiscal Rules. In IMF. Philippines: Selected Issues. IMF Country Report. 09/63. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2009/cr0963.pdf.

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